After the pandemic had halted international travel, many were seeing 2022 as a “breakthrough” year for the hospitality sector. Countries have lifted most of their lockdown restrictions and seen a drop in the number of new infections while much of their population has been fully vaccinated. The tourism industry was awaiting early 2022 to bounce back from pandemic-related losses.
In January 2022, European tourism was expected[1] to return to pre-pandemic levels as soon as in 2023,[2] but the Russia-Ukraine conflict that broke out in late February has compelled it to downgrade that forecast. The following three tourism-related aspects are discussed below in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine:
- inbound tourism to Europe;
- void left by Russian tourists;
- tourism in Central and Eastern European countries.
The above appears to be crucial for the tourism industry. As the war is on in Ukraine, jet fuel prices rose sharply, which will indeed make air travel and package holidays more expensive. The closure of Ukrainian and Russian airspace for civilian flights caused uneconomic and polluting rerouted flights.
Inbound tourism to Europe
The war[3] has stopped many tourists from traveling. The further away an event occurs from one’s home country, the more it acts as a deterrent,[4] perhaps due to ambiguous media coverage or the fact that some tourists are not at all familiar with some parts of the world. European destinations are now affected as many tourists will stay away from a war-torn continent, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).[5]
Many countries once popular with tourists have all but disappeared from the tourist map over the years because of repeated hazards. Tunisia, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Iraq, Syria, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and Mexico all suffered from the fact that war and terror deterred tourists.
European nations need a coherent marketing strategy outside their mother continent, which is a task for the European Travel Commission.[6]
Outflow of Russian tourists
Outflow of Russian tourists who could not travel amid worldwide sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine hit the tourism industry. Russia is in the top ten countries whose citizens spend their vacations abroad[7]––a symbol of wealth and high social status.
Russian tourists provided $14 billion in revenue worldwide and accounted for 3 percent of tourism revenue in 2020.[8] Countries like Cuba, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey, Maldives, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, and Cyprus are particularly popular with Russian tourists.[9] In Cyprus, guests from Russia make up 20 percent of all tourists.[10] In addition to the Mediterranean island, Russian tourists often visit Italy and Greece.[11] Data from Mabrian Technologies, a travel intelligence platform for the tourism industry, shows that for top countries for outbound Russian tourism by flight capacity[12] were Germany (553,000), Greece (304,000), and Cyprus (235,000).[13]
Both fewer Russian tourists and sanctions delivered a blow to the tourism industry. The ban on Russian-based banks from the SWIFT payment system made it harder for travel agencies to pay for accommodation while many tourists lost access to their money. Russian vacationers were stranded overseas, wondering how they can return home after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[14]
Not only Russian but also Ukrainian tourists are expected to avoid many destinations. Ukrainian travelers contributed another $8.5 billion to tourism in 2019.[15]
Interestingly, guests from Russia have to pay double fee to book holidays in some available holiday resorts.[16] What influenced prices in Russian travel agencies was a massive drop in the Russian currency. This might affect the global economy in the long run.
Tourism specialists say it is always advisable for a country not to rely too much on vacationers from a single country, but to address its offer to many nations.[17] A positive example is Cyprus whose efforts strengthened the state’s economy against the exodus of Russian tourists.[18] It takes years to develop a marketing strategy for foreign guests while it is challenging to reroute national schemes towards other markets in a hard yet indispensable step.
Tourism in Central and Eastern European countries
At first, countries of Central and Eastern Europe did not report any devastating effects of the war on tourism––tourists did not cancel their already made bookings yet they gradually stopped buying holidays in the region.[19] But some tourists could consider Central and Eastern Europe dangerous, notably those countries that border Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added another obstacle to air transport in Russia and Ukraine whose airspace was shut amid sanctions and safety reasons, respectively. While the number of flights has not shrunk, some passengers are fearful of flying in this region.
Jet2holidays, a British air carrier, canceled all flights to Cracow due to safety concerns.[20] UK newspapers warned against trips to Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia although there were no formal alerts.[21]
As countries neighboring Ukraine are now facing an influx of refugees, potential tourists could react as when migrants fled to Greece and Italy a few years ago. Some non-EU guests could feel intimidated while others might be ashamed to stay in hotels that often serve as reception centers for fleeing Ukrainians. Plus, the popular vacation regions do not share a border with Ukraine.[22]
Interestingly, tourism experts say tourism in Central and Eastern Europe has been hampered for years due to the smoldering conflict in Ukraine that could escalate at any moment.[23] It is vital for Visegrad or Three Seas nations to forge cooperation to promote the region in Europe and outside it.
Conclusions
In a nutshell, the war in Ukraine will affect tourism into the European Union and within its countries. Those countries that will suffer most have a common border with Ukraine. The inflation crisis and a sharp rise in air fares are likely to result in a more than proportionate decrease in outbound tourism. Hoteliers will be ready to fill in the void left by guests from Russia, seeking to negotiate prices with tour operators.
Many countries will struggle to regain tourism revenues.
The UNWTO addresses its member nations and helps them update their tourism marketing strategies. The organization offered some relief schemes to most crisis-stricken countries.
What action could the European Union take? Tourism is likely to become a top priority for the Commission that might allocate some funds to support the industry. The EU could create a post for an EU commissioner for tourism or at least a bureau of tourism within the structure of the European Commission. Perhaps it is worth making tourism policy common for all EU nations, but such a step would require amendments to the bloc’s treaties.
Yet it is not completely impossible: EU nations will be somewhat compelled to work together towards a tourism strategy that promotes Europe and help the most affected regions. Countries of the bloc could consolidate some legal aspects by exchanging best practices and forging dynamic cooperation to receive ad hoc support rapidly.
[1]https://geekweek.interia.pl/raporty/raport-nowy-rok-nowy-swiat/artykuly/news-turystyka-w-2022-roku-ekologiczna-zrownowazona-i-krajowa,nId,5737442#utm_source=paste&utm_medium=paste&utm_campaign=chrome; as of May 15, 2022, 9:15 AM
[2]https://www.nocowanie.pl/trendy-turystyczne-w-2022-roku–jak-bedliśmy-wypoczywac-i-gdzie-podrozowac.html; as of May 15, 2022, 9:20 AM
[3]https://www.dw.com/pl/bran%C5%BCa-turystyczna-odczuwalne-skutki-wojny/a-61516225; as of May 15, 2022, 9 AM
[4]“The further away the ‘hazard’ is, the larger the space that people consider ‘dangerous,” according to Professor Schmude. https://www.dw.com/pl/bran %C5%BCa-turystyczna-odczuwalne-skutki-wojny/a-61516225; as of May 15, 2022, 9:45 AM
[5] https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/2160353,1,turystyka-czasu-wojny-komu-rosyjska-inwazja-zepsuje-wakacje.read; as of May 15, 2022, 10:35 AM
[6]https://etc-corporate.org/; as of May 15, 2022, 11:20 AM
[7]https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/2160353,1,turystyka-czasu-wojny-komu-rosyjska-inwazja-zepsuje-wakacje.read; as of May 15, 2022, 10:10 AM
[8]https://www.dw.com/pl/bran%C5%BCa-turystyczna-odczuwalne-skutki-wojny/a-61516225; as of May 15, 2022, 9:00 AM
[9]https://www.dw.com/pl/bran%C5%BCa-turystyczna-odczuwalne-skutki-wojny/a-61516225; as of May 15, 2022, 9:00 AM
[10]https://www.dw.com/pl/bran%C5%BCa-turystyczna-odczuwalne-skutki-wojny/a-61516225; as of May 15, 2022, 9:00 AM
[11]https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/2160353,1,turystyka-czasu-wojny-komu-rosyjska-inwazja-zepsuje-wakacje.read; as of May 15, 2022, 10:10 AM
[12]Data was collected on February 22 while the six months from February 24 to August 24, 2022, are being analyzed in this paper. https://turystyka.rp.pl/nowe-trendy/art35773941-wojna-rosyjsko-ukrainska-jakie-kraje-straca-najwiecej-turystow-z-rosji; as of May 15, 2022, 11:10 AM
[13]https://turystyka.rp.pl/nowe-trendy/art35773941-wojna-rosyjsko-ukrainska-jakie-kraje-straca-najwiecej-turystow-z-rosji; as of May 15, 2022, 11:10 AM
[14]https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/2160353,1,turystyka-czasu-wojny-komu-rosyjska-inwazja-zepsuje-wakacje.read; as of May 15, 2022, 10:10 AM
[15]https://www.dw.com/pl/bran%C5%BCa-turystyczna-odczuwalne-skutki-wojny/a-61516225; as of May 15, 2022, 9:00 AM
[16]The average price for a ten-day all-inclusive holiday in a three-star hotel in Turkey has risen to 1,060 euros (more than PLN 5,000) in March from 616 euros (some 3,000 PLN) in February 2022, according to Russian Travel Digest. https://stronapodrozy.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-jak-sytuacja-wplywa-na-rosyjska-turystyke-za-tegoroczne-wakacje-rosjanie-zaplaca-nawet-80-procent-wiecej/ar/c7-16119629; as of May 15, 2022, 11:00 AM
[17]https://www.dw.com/pl/bran%C5%BCa-turystyczna-odczuwalne-skutki-wojny/a-61516225; as of May 15, 2022, 9:00 AM
[18]Philokypros Roussounides, the director general of the Cyprus Hotel Association, said that thanks to improved cooperation with France, Germany, Poland, Hungary, and other European countries, Cyprus “will be better off in 2022 than in the previous year, despite the absence of guests from Russia and despite higher energy prices.” https://www.dw.com/pl/bran %C5%BCa-turystyczna-odczuwalne-skutki-wojny/a-61516225; as of May 15, 2022, 9 AM
[19]Jochen Szech is president of the Alliance of Independent Travel Entrepreneurs and owner of Go East Reisen, a German travel agency specializing in Eastern European travel. Although he has seen some cancellations, he has noticed few new bookings, even though travel warnings have not been issued for the Baltic countries or Poland. https://www.dw.com/pl/wojna-w-ukrainie-i-jej-wp%C5%82yw-na-podr%C3%B3%C5%BCe-do-polski-i-innych-kraj%C3%B3w-w-regionie/a-61103584; as of May 15, 2022, 1:45 PM
[20] https://stronapodrozy.pl/ukraina-na-wojnie-polska-turystyka-w-kryzysie-konflikt-zbrojny-odstrasza-zagranicznych-turystow-od-polski-cierpia-krakow-i/ar/c7-16107167; as of May 15, 2022, 2:15 PM
[21] https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/2160353,1,turystyka-czasu-wojny-komu-rosyjska-inwazja-zepsuje-wakacje.read; as of May 15, 2022, 10:45 AM
[22] https://www.dw.com/pl/wojna-w-ukrainie-i-jej-wp%C5%82yw-na-podr%C3%B3%C5%BCe-do-polski-i-innych-kraj%C3%B3w-w-regionie/a-61103584; as of May 15, 2022, 1:45 PM
[23] https://www.dw.com/pl/wojna-w-ukrainie-i-jej-wp%C5%82yw-na-podr%C3%B3%C5%BCe-do-polski-i-innych-kraj%C3%B3w-w-regionie/a-61103584; as of May 15, 2022, 1:45 PM
