The ongoing intensification of hostilities in Ukraine since 24 February 2022 is changing our post-Cold view of the world. One of the most significant changes occurred related to the perceptions of the combat capabilities of the Russian army.
Before the full-scale invasion, some analysts assumed that the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, would be overrun in hours if Russia set that as an objective.[1] Reality has shown that despite its status as the world’s second army, the Russian Federation is unable to achieve a decisive advantage over Ukraine. However, despite all this, the Russian Federation has recently developed a new hypersonic technology that poses a viable threat to the West.
Weapon of tomorrow
Despite the recent dominance of the United States, the modern security system is still a remnant of the Cold War nuclear balance. Understanding this, Russia has been successively working on a new type of hypersonic weapon. The introduction of a new type of “invincible” intercontinental hypersonic missile[2] and its test in 2018,[3] combined with the use of the Kinzhal missile (Kh-47M2) in Ukraine on 18 of March 2022,[4] set a date for a new ongoing arms race. Currently, multiple countries are trying to develop hypersonic weapons, describing them as “game changers”, but only Russia has successfully launched and used hypersonic missile attacks against a target.
What is a hypersonic weapon?
Hypersonic weapons are described as weapons that fly at speeds of at least Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound) and are highly manoeuvrable and able to change course during a flight. They differ from ballistic missiles, which can also travel at hypersonic speeds but have set trajectories and limited manoeuvrability.[5] The new hypersonic weapons are able to fly much higher than slower subsonic missiles but much lower than intercontinental ballistic missiles.
There are three main categories of hypersonic weapons:
Hypersonic aero-ballistic are dropped from an aircraft, accelerated to hypersonic speed using a rocket and then follow a ballistic trajectory.[6]
Hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) are launched from a rocket before separating and gliding to the target.
Hypersonic cruise missiles are powered by high-speed, air-breathing engines or “scramjets”.[7]
The most significant advantages of hypersonic weapons are their speed and manoeuvrability, which make potential missile detection possible only in the final phase of flight.
Russian hypersonic weapons.
The main face of Russia’s hypersonic programme that took world’s attention after the attack on 18 March 2022 in Ukraine, is the rocket called Kinzhal (rus. dagger). Kinzhal is a nuclear‑capable manoeuvring air-launched ballistic missile based on Iskander structure. The weapon is designed to be carried on an aircraft MiG-31 (1 missile) or strategic bomber Tu-22M3 (4 missiles). Russian reports that Kinzhal’s top speed is Mach 10 (3430 m / s), with a range of up to 1,200 miles (2000 km) when launched from the MiG-31. The Kinzhal is capable of manoeuvrable flight, as well as of striking both ground and naval targets.[8] The missile is especially designed to target U. S. and NATO warships and aircraft, posing a threat to the strategic missile system in Russia’s European part. Furthermore, it is capable to overcome and destroy NATO defence systems, such as MIM- 104 PATRIOT, THAAD or AEGIS COMBAT SYSTEM. The weapon can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. Joe Biden in March 2022 described it as “a consequential weapon… it’s almost impossible to stop it. There’s a reason they’re using it.”[9]
In addition to Kinzhal, Russia is developing two other types of hypersonic weapons. First, Avangard is a hypersonic glide vehicle launched from an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), with an “effectively ‘unlimited’ range.”. Tested in April 2022 and scheduled to be deployed by the end of 2022, Avangard is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Furthermore, Russia is developing a ship-launched hypersonic cruise missile called Tsirkon, which can travel at speeds between Mach 6 and Mach 8 with a distance up to 625 miles. Tsirkon is reportedly capable of striking both ground and naval targets.[10] The Russians sources say that the weapon will become operational by the end of 2022.[11]
The new international order.
Introduction of hypersonic weapons drastically reduces the time to travel between the US and Russia. Several disarmament agreements such as SALT I, SALT II or NEW START guaranteed that the potential conventional nuclear missile from the Russian/USSR would reach the United States in approximately 30 minutes.[12] These 30 mins assured both sides sufficient time to detect hostile action and potentially respond. Moreover, this fragile nuclear construction used to keep both sides in check by not allowing global conflict to erupt even at the most sensitive moments. Erosion of the post-Cold War security system combined with a reduction of the missile flight makes the risk of a potential nuclear attack more likely than ever. Using a new type of hypersonic weapon can reduce the time of reach of Russian nuclear hypersonic missiles to about 10-15 minutes.[13] In addition, for the moment, there is no adequate defence system capable of stopping a hypersonic missile. The speed of these weapons increases the precariousness of the situation because the time for any diplomatic solution would be reduced severely.
Catching up
Knowing the strategic advantage Russia has gained, the West, led by the United States, is pouring huge sums into its own hypersonic programmes. Starting in 2021, the United States is set to spend $770 billion on hypersonic research and development, making them a top priority.[14] Hypersonic technology has been known since around 1980. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the advent of the “End of History” caused the United States to no longer consider hypersonic technology a priority, resulting in a drastic cut in funding for the programme. Despite all this, the United States is catching up at a rapid pace. On 13 July 2022, the U.S. successfully tested two Lockheed Martin Corp hypersonic missiles.[15] This event brings the West closer to achieving full operational capability in hypersonic technology. Additionally, the United States is trying to develop an effective defence system against hypersonic. These measures aim to erode the recent Russian advantage that has developed and bring Russia and China to the table to work out new security mechanisms.
Significant of hypersonic weapons
Some analysts believe that civilian casualties will decrease with the development of precision hypersonic weapons. They acknowledge that using precise and expensive tactical weapons should manifest in using them to neutralise militarily strategic targets. However, knowing the nature of the war that the Russian Federation is waging, it is safe to say that Russia will not hesitate to use these weapons against civilians. The Russians, knowing their weaknesses, base their war doctrine on fear and suffering. These are consistent actions carried out in Chechnya, Syria, of which Ukraine is the latest instalment. The threat posed by hypersonic weapons is particularly important because hypersonic weapons can carry nuclear warheads and are able to bypass all current anti-missile defence systems. All of this makes the possibility of a potential nuclear attack more likely than ever. It is also worth mentioning that the present Russian Federation is very different from the Soviet Union, which was a collective dictatorship, unlike the tsarist authority that Putin has now.
The rapid development of hypersonic weapons is an event without parallel since the Cold War, marking the beginning of a new arms race. The hypersonic race, combined with the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, sets a date for a new global rivalry taking the shape Cold War of the 2nd generation.
Szymon Polewka
[1] Mike Eckel, How Long Could Ukraine Hold Out Against A New Russian Invasion?, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, December 17, 2021:
[2]Vladimir Putin: Russia boasts new missiles in state of the union address, Deutsche Welle, 01.03.2018:
[3] Russia test-fires hypersonic Kinzhal missile, Deutsche Welle, 11.03.2018:
[4] Iain Boyd, How hypersonic missiles work and the unique threats they pose – an aerospace engineer explains, The Conversation, April 15, 2022
[5] Hypersonic Weapons: Background and Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service, Updated July 20, 2022
[6] Iain Boyd, op. cit.
[7] https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf
[8] Hypersonic Weapons: Background and Issues for Congress, op. cit.
[9] Brad Lendon, What to know about hypersonic missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine, CNN, Updated May 10, 2022:
[10] Hypersonic Weapons: Background and Issues for Congress, op. cit.
[11] Isabel Van Brugen, Putin to Give Navy Hypersonic Missiles as Russia Beats U.S. in Arms Race, 7/18/22:
[12] New START Treaty, U.S. Department of state
[13] Roxana Tiron, The U.S. just announced it was developing hypersonic weapons with the U.K. and Australia, and Russia says it used them in Ukraine. Here’s what they are, fortune, April 6, 2022
[14] Shannon McDonald, Defense spending act makes hypersonic a top priority, calling for billions in investment, Cnbc, Dec 29 2021:
[15] Mike Stone, U.S. successfully tests pair of Lockheed hypersonic missiles, Reuters, July 14, 2022:
